Subtitle: Persuasion In a World Where Facts Don't Matter
Listen Here
Interesting Links
Interesting People
Google Founders
Books Mentioned
Impossible to Ignore by Dr. Carmen Simon
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
Influence by Robert Cialdini
PreSuasion by Robert Cialdini
A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel
The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Skin In The Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big by Scott Adams
Incerto by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari
Extra Notes
Three notable philosophers discussed how reality isn't necessarily anything like we perceive it.
Plato: The Allegory of the Cave. It asks us to imagine a group people who are in a cave with the entrance behind them facing the wall. At the wall infront of them, they see shadows of other people who are moving. The thing is, our original group can't look around to see the moving people, so for them, the shadows are living creatures who are independent. The moral here is that each of us is a prisoner of hos own brain and seeing the world through the shadows.
David Hume: he questioned whether we have free will, and if we don't then we're simply robots who are moving around and victims of the causal chain of events around us.
Immanuel Kant: In simple words, we can't truly and fully comprehend the world because of our faulty senses. So, we settle for a construct of our own.
-How to Know you won Argument:
When people run out of facts and reasons in debates, if their next response is an oversize personal attack (Attack On the Messenger), then maybe it's cognitive dissonance.
-Godwin's Law is an Internet adage asserting that "as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.
-Reticular activation: it refers to the brain’s natural ability to filter out information that you don’t need, making it is easier to spot the things you do need.
-Occam’s razor: In the context of science, the simplest explanation that explains your observations is more likely to be right than the one with hundreds of variables and assumptions.
Persuasion Vocabulary
Anchor, Cognitive Dissonance, Confirmation Bias, Filter, Godzilla, The High-Ground Maneuver, Linguistic Kill Shot, Master Persuader, Moist Robot, Mole, acing and Leading, Persuasion Stack, Second Dimension, Setting the Table, Tells, Thinking Past the Sale, Third Act, Third Dimension, Two Movies on One Screen
Episode Transcript
Episode Introduction
Hello and welcome to the TLDR Show, a podcast where I distill the knowledge of books just for you. I am your host Abdelrahman and I am very excited to have you with me. For today's episode, we continue our series on Human Nature. In the last 2 episodes, we covered Influence and the 6 principles of persuasion. Today, we'll see why facts don't matter when it comes to persuasion.
Without further a due, let us dive into our third book, Win Bigly, subtitled Persuasion In A World, Where Facts Don't Matter by Scott Adams.
Win Bigly Introduction
The central idea of the book is what Scott Adams refers to as filters. Here we're talking about the lenses that we see the world through them. The common worldview shared by most of us is that there is one objective reality, and we as humans can understand it using facts and reasoning. As for the other people who disagree with us, they need better facts, and sometimes better brains would help too.
Confirmation Bias
[1:07] Our filter helps us in navigating the world and predicting where it's going, to some degree. However, just because of its apparent accuracy, it does not mean that what we understand in our mind represents the reality of things in any way. Let me introduce to you, Confirmation Bias. It is the idea that we have a tendency to interpret new data as supporting our existing view. Using confirmation bias, we will bend the information we receive from the world to fit our own worldview and block or discard the ones that do not fit.
One of the best sentences in this book is the following. "Confirmation bias isn’t an occasional bug in our human operating system. It is the operating system". In a way, our system 2 that is described in the previous episode from Thinking Fast & Slow, being the lazy one, just lay back while system 1 uses our confirmation bias to move along in life.
Cognitive Dissonance
[2:03] Besides confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance is the second most important term that you need, to better understand yourself and the world. It is the mental condition in which people rationalize why their actions are inconsistent with their thoughts and beliefs. For example, if you believe yourself to be a smart person, but you see yourself doing something clearly stupid, instead of confronting the fact, you might start coming up with reasons on why you're doing it. Or as Scott Says, you might self hallucinate.
Another example is how some smokers claim that smoking won't hurt them since they know someone who lived till they were hundred. Of course, this's an absurd claim, but at the same time they don't want to admit their addiction or inability to stop, or any other real issues they are facing that led them to smoke. All these will hurt their self-image and so they come up with such absurd reasoning.
The funny thing is that for both confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance, we believe that they apply only for other people, but not for us, specially after learning about them. But the reality is that, it is almost impossible for us to notice it happening while we are doing them.
I break down the book's ideas into three main areas, why facts are overrated, what really matters instead of facts, and lastly a persuader toolbox. Let us start with why facts are overrated.
Why Facts Are Overrated
[3:25] We earlier mentioned the idea of filters and how the world is not really what we see it as. This is not a new idea, and throughout history notable philosophers discussed it. From Plato's Allegory of the Cave to David Hume and Immanuel Kant. I am not going to bore you with the details, even though I'd love to. But, I'll keep it in the show notes with links to episodes of each philosopher from one of my favorite podcasts "Philosophize This" by Steven West. As a side note, another great podcast about philosophy is "History of Philosophy without any Gaps" which is a project that aims to cover all the history of philosophy.
Another notable author is Nassim Taleb and his books collection "Incerto" is among the best books that discussed human nature and went beyond it covering various topics. A good starting book as recommended by Naval is "Skin In The Game". Another area that shows our limitation on grasping reality is in the realms of quantum mechanics. I'll link in the show notes to two topics and you can let the rabbit hole take you, the Double-Slit Experiment and the nature of nothing.
If you're saying, well all of this sounds interesting, but it is not really something that affects my life. Well, search "The McGurk Effect" on YouTube. You will see a man's mouth repeating "Bah, bah, bah" and you'll hear it correctly. Then, they keep the same audio track, but the man's mouth movement changes to "fa ,fa, fa". Even though you know he's saying the B sound but your senses will trick you into hearing the fa sound.
Filters
[5:02] All of this is to show the fact that each of us sees the world in a unique way and no one else has the exact view.
The Persuasion Filter
And this unique view is using filters. There are two criteria to judge filters on according to Scott. Does it make you happy and whether it makes good predictions about the future. His main filter is the persuasion filter, but first, we will go through a few other ones.
The Santa Claus filter is one that children see the world through it. They believe in magic and magical creatures. Looking back at our criteria, this filter definitely makes them happy, but it is absolutely wrong about predicting the future.
Another filter is the Moist Robot filter. We talked about it in the previous two episodes. This filter says that human brains are moist computers and we can reprogram it if we know where the user interface is. We can see this programmability of the brain when we look at the effects of exercise, food, social media etc. Scott covers the moist robot filter in more detail in his book "How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big".
Now to the persuasion filter. It is a subset of the Moist Robot filter, where it takes the same view and adds on top of it the human programming language. The programming language is the language persuasion and the outcome is to influence our thoughts and actions. As we have established over the course of this series, we are irrational creatures and the persuasion filter uses the same premise as us being irrational 90% of the time.
The pillars for this language are Cognitive Dissonance and Confirmation Bias.
How To Spot Cognitive Dissonance
[6:39] Let us see how can we spot cognitive dissonance. When talking with someone or observing them, look into why do they do their action. Remember our smoking example, if the reasoning is clear such as their admission of addiction and maybe enjoyment, then no cognitive dissonance here. But, if the reason is an absurd one like them knowing someone who survived smoking and lived long, then it's cognitive dissonance. A tip from me if you care about this person and want to help them break off their cognitive dissonance, ask them why three times. We usually tend to reply to the first one with an automatic answer without giving it any thought. Digging deeper will help them find the real reason.
What Really Matters Instead of Facts
[7:22] Now, let's move into the second area. If facts don't matter, then what does? There're 3 main points to be covered here, the persuasion skill levels, the general rule of persuasion, and the persuasion hierarchy.
Persuasion Skills Levels
Let's start with persuasion skill levels. Here, Scott breaks it down into three levels:
Commercial-grade persuaders: these are people who use persuasion in their work.
Cognitive scientists: are the ones who study this field
Master Persuaders: these ones have weapons-grade persuasion skills. People like Steve Jobs and Tony Robbins are good examples.
The main difference between the lower two-level and the master persuaders is the level of risk-taking and the unique personality that comes with it.
General Rule of Persuasion
[8:07] The General Rule of Persuasion
Now, the general rule of persuasion is that visual persuasion, followed by emotion, repetition, and simplicity are better persuasion tactics than using facts and details. Our minds are weak to routine and boring details and facts. They need a bit of a stimulus or surprise to make them form long-lasting memories. Let's take an example. If you want to convince someone about the importance of maintaining a healthy diet. You can list down facts about the risks of diabetes, blood hypertension, and strokes. But, if we followed the earlier rule, a higher level is simplicity. Here, you can make a general statement saying soft drinks are bad and will lead to health issues so they should be avoided. Repetition can be done by hanging a poster that says/shows a health message or image in the bathroom, room, or kitchen to act as a reminder. For the emotional and visual, a good combination is conveying the image of how they won't be able to enjoy their senior life with their children, or passing away prematurely and not witnessing their weddings.
Hierarchy of Persuasion (Strongest-Weakest)
[9:14] Now, let's move into the persuasion hierarchy. This one is a hierarchy of strength, with the top spots taken with emotional ones and the bottom are the "Rational" ones.
Word Thinking
Let's start with the bottom of the hierarchy and the weakest of all, Word Thinking.
Word-thinking is a term invented by Scott in which people try to win an argument by adjusting the meaning or definition of words without presenting any facts.
Hypocrisy
[9:39] The second one from the bottom is Hypocrisy. This one is visible in the political arena.. Here, the opponents will bring up dirt at each other by saying "Your side did an immoral action", and the other side response by bringing some dirt on them, and the drama continues. This is a very good method to fill the TV time, but it's very weak when it comes to persuasion as both parties will be seen bad and childish.
If you are in a situation where your opponent is using this one, instead of replying by saying "you did it too", use the High-Ground Maneuver. We will talk about it later in the persuader toolbox section.
Reason
[10:15] The third category of persuasion is using Reason. As we saw throughout the series, we aren't rational creatures. Generally, when it comes to persuasion, reasoning and facts don't matter. The only exception is when there's no emotional context or investment and all the necessary information are available. The thing is, fulfilling these two criteria is almost impossible. Almost all topics are emotional and having all necessary and correct information is an illusion in this day and age. And when we account for confirmation bias, even having the same set of information doesn't guarantee both sides seeing the same point.
Scott gives a very good example where using only facts and reasoning wouldn't have resulted in the desired outcome. When it comes to recycling, instead of bombarding people about facts only, the nature of recycling as a semi-public activity, ensures that society will be guarding it. When visitors come to your house, they will notice the use or lack of a recycling bin. The same for your neighbors who see your bin in front of your house. Another source of pressure is kids from school. When they learn about recycling and how other families are doing, they will apply pressure on the parents to comply. This social pressure uses the social proof power of influence in making people comply.
The interesting thing is, when you ask people why do they recycle, they will usually say their rationalizations such as being green and in support of such actions to be consistent with their self-image of being good and responsible citizens. But, they won't realize the other powers at play here.
Analogies
[11:46] After reasoning the next strongest persuasion category is analogies.
Analogies work best when explaining new ideas or concepts. You can use it to build a framework in your audience's memory and add details to it as you go on.
But, they are terrible in persuasion. Analogies by nature are imprecise, meaning it's very hard to find a perfect fit analogy. This gives bullets to your opponent to attack you through your imperfect analogy. I can't remember the attribution, but a nice quote that fits this is "Don't argue the example, argue the logic".
Since analogies work best when introducing a new concept, they can work as powerful anchors. We mentioned anchors in our last two books. We saw how anchors provide a great tool in pricing and negotiation. When it comes to analogies, if the analogy uses a strongly negative or positive association, they will anchor that new concept to the association.
Let us take two examples. If you are talking to a friend about a politician that he doesn't know much about, and your analogy was associating with Hitler. Subconsciously, this will create a strong negative anchor in your friend's mind. In the future, confirmation bias will kick in for your friend and he'll start rationalizing his hate for that political, without even remembering you are the one who started it. I am mentioning this example since it's a common tool used in arguments to associate the opponent with a very bad character, in the hopes of invoking the negative image and win the argument.
A positive analogy is if you are discussing with a potential investor and your analogy for your team was the PayPal mafia or the Google Founders. This positive association will bring your listener's attention qualities such as success and a lot of money.
The power of association is a key concept in our next book, Pre-Suasion. So, stay tuned for the next episode.
Habits
[13:39] Above analogies in the hierarchy of persuasion are using Habits. This is best used by companies. They link using their products to an existing habit of yours. An example is taking your vitamins after you shower & brushing your teeth. Or when toothpaste was initially introduced, the strategy was to insert it into our daily routine after waking up. Another form is naming your company or product to be associated with an existing habit. Two examples are Scott Adam's YouTube channel "Coffee with Scott Adams" and "Morning Brew", which is a newsletter that you receive in the morning and read, hopefully, while drinking your Morning Brewed Coffee.
Aspiration
[14:20] At the top of the hierarchy of persuasive are Aspirations, Small Fear, Identity, and Big Fear.
Aspiration works best when you can tailor your story to fit your audience's aspirations. Such aspirations include creativity, adventure, financial independence, etc. which are always included in companies' marketing. But you can use it as well. Want to ask for money, bring a story about generosity before asking. Want your audience to try something new, tap into their feeling of being adventurous.
Identity
[14:53] Appealing to identity is the next most persuasive tool in your hand. We as a society came from tribes and we help the people in our tribe against other ones. In a modern-day setting, this tribalism can be in terms of nationality, gender, ethnic group, political affiliation, etc. The power of identity we will explore in the 7th principle of influence in the upcoming episode. If you want to explore how our hunter-gatherer mindset still affects our life, check Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari. It is a wonderful read.
Fear
[15:27] Lastly, the strongest form of persuasion is using Fear which can be deeply moving & persuasive. The main usage of it is in political campaigns where issues such as crime & security are always brought up to win voters. The point of presenting this hierarchy is to show how facts are really overrated. Even when faced with facts, cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias can kick in and create a whole different image for each listener.
Persuader Toolbox
[15:56] Now, we covered how facts are overrated and what really matters instead of them. Now, we'll cover the last section, the persuasion toolbox that we can all use in our day-to-day life.
Setting Up the Table
[16:05] The first tool Setting Up the Table for persuasion. We mentioned it in influence when we were talking about The Authority Principle. Setting up the table includes Dressing for the occasion/ Improving your physical appearance using diet, hair cut and skincare/ signaling your credentials in a natural way/ branding yourself as a winner (*mention previous deals or projects)/If possible, meet in your own turf or office/ Set high expectations using anchors/Prime your audience using stories or videos prior to negotiations & bring high energy. In a way, this's a mini toolbox within the toolbox.
Talent Stack
[16:43] The second tool is what Scott Adams calls the Talent Stack which is discussed in his book "How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big". In today's world, being in the top 1% in any specific field has a very low probability. However, with the talent stack, you can develop 3 or 4 skills that work well together and become in the top 20-25%. The stacking part is with the combination of these skills, you'll be uniquely in the top 1% of your own league. For Scott, his talent stack was his background as a trained hypnotist and persuader with his experience in business and his no-so-great skills in art. His ability to make these work well together makes him into a famous cartoonist with Dilbert Comics. For you, your skills could be your engineering background, with interpersonal skills and a bit of good writing experience. If you can develop your persuasion skills with some public speaking, you could become an amazing sales force. The skills combinations are limitless, have a look at your core skills, look into which combination of other skills will make you more valuable, and work on them. This was a point of discussion in an Episode of Naval podcast, where they were discussing how to build your specific knowledge. It is a great episode, I'll link to it in the show notes.
Pacing and Leading
[17:58] The next tool is used for moving energy and focus. Pacing and Leading the idea here is that you match your audience's emotional energy to gain their trust. From there, you have the control to lead their attention wherever you want. In the leading part, you match your audience language level. if you are addressing workers or managers, students, or experienced professionals, use the appropriate language. Also, establish a common ground and acknowledge their point of view. These will make you win their hearts and gain their trust. Then comes the leading part, use the hierarchy of persuasion for telling your message and focusing their attention on what you want. You can also make your audience think past the sale. If you presenting a project, thinking past the sale will be you building an image of how their life would change after finishing.
The Contract Principle
[18:50] Another tool is to use the contrast principle whenever possible. When presenting a plan, always offer alternatives that are worse than your plan. And as we mentioned in Predictably Irrational, people will choose the option they have a comparison for over the one they don't, even if the comparison is engineered.
Two Ways to Win, No Way to Lose
[19:08] Besides, using the contrast principle, try to create situations that Scott Adams call "Two Ways to Win, No Way to Lose". It is where even the worst-case scenario has some benefit to it. In Dilbert Comics, which is created by Scott, there's one where two characters are talking. It goes like this. Character 1: How's the Mars Spaceship Project Going? Character 2: Good. I picked our worst employees to be on the first flight, just in case it explodes. Character 1: Good thinking Character 2: We have two ways to win and no way to lose. You should definitely check the Dilbert Comics. I'll link for it in the show notes. Use this two ways to win and no way to lose, to reframe alternatives. In meetings, when you present your options in this way, people will probably agree with you, since it's also using a High-Ground Maneuver. Which is our next tool and one of the most important ones in this book.
High Ground Maneuver
[20:04] High Ground Maneuver is taking the argument out of the details into the high principles, or onto the high ground that everyone agrees on. Let's take two examples. Remember our example in using hypocrisy in persuasion. Instead of responding by bringing dirt on their opponent, some politicians say something in the lines of "No party is perfect, but we should all aspire to move this country forward and make it into a better place for our citizens". This disarms their opponent, and puts them in a place where they have to agree, otherwise, the audience will see them as childish. If your team is discussing some problems that they are facing. Everyone is stressed and they are divided between taking drastic measures or not, your response could be. "I understand everyone is worried, and these are tough times, but this is how we will grow and evolve" Another response is "I understand everyone is worried, and these are tough times. But, we're a family and we need to go through this together" In both cases, you take the argument from the details to reframing it as a growth opportunity or an appeal to unity. Such small changes could be what makes the difference.
Conclusion
[21:13] To wrap things up, let's answer our questions from the start of the episode. Why facts are overrated? Well, the simple answer is because of filters, confirmation bias, and cognitive dissonance. These should tell us how objective our worldview is and our ability to rationalize and create a movie about the world around us. Which is again, it doesn't matter. What is important is to remember the criteria for a good filter, making us happy and gives us good predictions about the future.
Our second question was what really matters instead of facts? Well, the simple answer is emotions and how we convey the message. Whether it is using visuals, emotions, repetition, or simplicity, they will always beat facts by themselves.
Now, since we answered these two questions, remember your new persuasion toolbox, set your table, use contrast, pace and lead your audience, and when in a tough spot use the high ground maneuver.
I hope you enjoyed this episode. Next week, we will cover the last book of this series "Pre-Suasion" and see how background music can affect our buying choices.
Make sure to check the website at tldr-show.com for the show notes, links to social media, and the extra good stuff. Till next time, be critical, be curious.
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